The NFL's Media Rights Doldrums

The NFL is currently in the midst of a lull regarding its media rights, with the league's vast majority of major media rights deals extending to 2028 or beyond. This period of relative stability is referred to as the “doldrums,” a calm before the storm of potential change.

• The NFL signed an 11-year, $111 billion media rights deal in 2021, encompassing a multitude of media partners including major networks like Fox, CBS, and NBCUniversal.
• However, the NFL has a special clause allowing them to opt out of their contracts with all media partners (except Disney), after the 2028-29 season.
• This opt-out clause positions the NFL for potentially significant shifts in media rights landscape, potentially impacting the balance of power in media.

Potential Shift Towards Streaming

The NFL's opt-out clause marks a turning point as the league considers transitioning from traditional television to streaming services. The NFL could shift its programming towards streaming giants like Apple, Amazon, Google's YouTube, or even Netflix, potentially disrupting the existing relationships with established networks like Fox and CBS.

• This transition to streaming platforms would likely drive up the value of NFL teams as the league taps into a more lucrative digital market.
• The move towards streaming is anticipated to have a major impact on future team valuations, as evidenced by CNBC's forthcoming Official 2024 NFL Team Valuations list.

Media Landscape Transformation

The NFL's potential move to streaming aligns with a broader transformation in the media landscape. Traditional media companies are experiencing significant shifts as they adjust to the growing popularity of streaming platforms.

• Paramount Global, a prominent media company, has announced plans to merge with Skydance Media by mid-2025.
• Warner Bros. Discovery is actively seeking partnerships to amplify its content reach and manage expenses.
• Netflix's foray into live sports, including its acquisition of Christmas Day NFL games, demonstrates the platform's ambition to expand its programming offerings.
• These shifts suggest a dynamic landscape for NFL media rights in the future, with new players and partnerships potentially emerging.

The Future of NFL Media Rights

The NFL's future media rights landscape will be shaped by several critical factors:

• The continued decline of pay-TV subscribers, known as the "pay TV bundle," which has been a cornerstone of revenue for traditional media companies.
• The rise of streaming platforms and their potential to capture a larger share of sports programming.
• The expanding reach of major tech companies like Google and Apple, who possess substantial financial resources to compete for media rights.

Impact on Other Sports Leagues

The NFL's decision will have implications for other major sports leagues. As streaming services become more prominent in sports broadcasting, leagues like Major League Baseball, the NBA, and the NHL will likely feel the pressure to adjust their media strategies.

• The NFL's actions will serve as a blueprint for other leagues as they navigate the evolving media landscape.
• The NHL's media rights deal is set to expire in 2028, while Major League Baseball's deal ends in 2028.
• The NBA recently replaced its partnership with Warner Bros. Discovery with NBCUniversal, demonstrating a shift towards traditional broadcast networks.
• The future of media rights for all sports leagues, including the NFL, is intertwined with the changing landscape of content distribution.

The NFL's Power in the Media Landscape

The NFL's immense popularity gives the league significant leverage in media rights negotiations. As the most-watched sport in the U.S., the NFL commands top dollar for its programming, driving the overall value of media rights deals across all sports.

• The NFL's power in the market is reflected in the sheer size of its media rights deals, which are often significantly larger than those of other leagues.
• This dominance will continue to shape the future of media rights negotiations as the NFL navigates the evolving landscape of TV and streaming.

Long-Term Implications

The upcoming NFL media rights negotiations will have profound implications for the future of sports broadcasting. The NFL's decision to stay with traditional TV or shift to streaming will have a ripple effect across the entire sports media landscape.

• Streaming platforms will likely gain greater prominence in sports, potentially shifting the balance of power in media.
• The value of sports media rights is expected to continue to escalate, driven by the demand from both traditional and digital players.
• The NFL's media rights decision will shape the way sports are consumed for years to come.