Assessing Product Traction with Google Trends

This article discusses using Google Trends to assess the traction of a product or startup. It emphasizes that PR buzz is not a reliable indicator of product/market fit, and instead recommends using Google Trends to track navigational queries, which are a powerful indicator of consumer demand.

Navigational Queries: A Powerful Indicator of Consumer Demand

Navigational queries are searches for specific brands, like “yelp” or “facebook”. These queries are a good representation of consumer “pull” from the market. When a brand's navigational queries are flat or declining, it suggests a potential problem.

Why Navigational Queries Are So Powerful

The author explains that navigational queries partially remove the influence of traffic sources that can be inauthentic, unsustainable, or artificially inflated. These sources include:

• Unsustainable paid ads
• Content farming
• Drive-by traffic

Google Trends as a Leading Indicator of Traffic

The author argues that the consumer demand curve as seen in Google Trends is a leading indicator of traffic. A company that is growing steadily in Google Trends, even if it's not getting much press, is likely a healthy company.

Seasonality in Google Trends

Google Trends allows for granular analysis, including viewing data on a 30-day rolling basis and breaking it down by country. This helps identify patterns in traffic seasonality.

• Time-saving products are used more during the weekdays.
• Time-wasting products are used more on the weekends.

Triangulating with Other Tools

The author suggests using other tools in conjunction with Google Trends to get a more comprehensive understanding of product traction.

• AppAnnie: Track mobile app rankings and how they change over time.
• Facebook stats: Gain insights into Facebook sign-in data for web products.
• Quantcast: Analyze unique visitors per month for web products.
• Twitter search: See how users are discussing the brand on Twitter.
• Twittercounter: Monitor the growth of a brand's follower count on Twitter.

Case Studies: Airbnb, Foursquare, Pinterest, Twitter, Quora, and Yahoo

The author provides Google Trends graphs for several popular companies, highlighting their different growth trajectories. Some companies, like Airbnb, show strong growth, while others, like Foursquare and Twitter, appear to be plateauing.

Conclusion: Leveraging Google Trends for Startup and Marketing Success

Google Trends is a powerful tool for assessing product traction, especially when combined with other data sources. It provides insights into consumer demand, seasonality, and overall trends that can be valuable for marketing, social media, and mobile app development. By monitoring these trends, startups can make informed decisions about product strategy and growth.