Conservation of Intent: Why A/B Tests Don't Always Translate to Higher Conversion Rates

A/B testing is a powerful tool for optimizing websites and apps. However, it's not a magic bullet that guarantees higher conversion rates. The "Conservation of Intent" principle explains why. This principle, inspired by the Law of the Conservation of Momentum, states that the total amount of intent within a system is fixed.

• Simply making changes to your website or app, such as moving buttons or optimizing headlines, can increase user engagement but may not directly impact your bottom line.
• This is because these tactics may attract low-intent users who are less likely to convert. They may browse your site but don't have the same level of commitment as high-intent users.

The Difference Between High- and Low-Intent Users

High-intent users are those who are more likely to convert. They are already interested in your product or service and are ready to take action. Low-intent users, on the other hand, may be browsing your site out of curiosity or because they saw an ad. They may not be ready to purchase or sign up for your service.

Why You Can’t Add Up Your A/B Test Results

Often, teams that conduct A/B testing may focus on the individual gains from each test. However, it's important to note that simply adding up the individual test results may not accurately reflect the overall impact on your conversion rate.

• High-intent users are more likely to convert regardless of minor changes in the user experience. These changes may have a minimal impact on their behavior.
• Low-intent users may be "burned off" at each step of the conversion funnel. As they move through the process, they may drop off before reaching the final conversion goal.

Understand the Barriers for High-Intent Users

To truly boost your conversion rate, you need to understand what's blocking your high-intent users from converting. These are the users who want to buy your product but are facing obstacles.

• Examples of obstacles could be complex payment processes, technical glitches, poor user experience, or confusing navigation.

Focus on Optimizing the Conversion Funnel

Focus your efforts on optimizing the user experience in the latter stages of your conversion funnel. This is where the low-intent users have already dropped off, and you are primarily working with high-intent users.

• The final steps before the conversion point are crucial. For example, for e-commerce sites, it could be the checkout process, while for SaaS products, it might be the sign-up process.

Be Skeptical of Case Studies

Be cautious when reviewing external case studies that promise massive conversion rate increases. Often, vendors may cherry-pick data and focus on metrics that are easy to manipulate.

• Instead of focusing on the advertised results, try to understand the methodology used in the study and the underlying reasons for the claimed increases.

Incorporate a Discount Factor in Your Product Roadmap

When creating your product roadmap, consider the reality of the "Conservation of Intent" principle. Don't simply assume that all of your A/B test improvements will add up to a significant increase in your overall conversion rate.

• Build a realistic forecast by including a discount factor to account for the potential decrease in impact as you move from the top of the funnel to the bottom.
• Focus on strategies that can increase user intent, such as offering free trials, user onboarding tutorials, or social proof features.

Key Takeaways

The "Conservation of Intent" principle is a crucial concept for anyone involved in product growth. Remember these key takeaways:

• A/B testing can be a powerful tool but don't rely on it as a magic bullet for increasing your conversion rate.
• Focus on understanding the difference between high- and low-intent users and how to effectively target each group.
• Optimize your conversion funnel, especially the latter stages, to maximize conversion rates.
• Be skeptical of case studies and ensure you understand the underlying methodology and impact.
• Incorporate a discount factor into your product roadmap to account for the "Conservation of Intent" principle.