The Future of Software Development: A Comprehensive Analysis

Framework: Software Development Capability Level

Software development involves a range of tasks beyond coding, including communication, planning, and debugging.
AI tools can assist developers at various levels: no AI involvement, assistance with specific tasks, and full project delegation.

Framework: Outsourced Software Development

AI coders can be seen as outsourced software vendors.
An in-house team is still valuable for overseeing AI-generated code and ensuring alignment with organizational goals.

Framework: Software Development Is Modeling Complexity

Complex business problems require individuals who can translate real-world problems into digital models.
Business users using AI tools to create complex workflows are still essentially software developers.

Framework: Size Of The Pie

The market for solving business problems is vast, and AI tools will likely increase its size rather than diminish it.

Framework: Formal Business Logic Definition

Business logic must be defined in an unambiguous format, whether through code, Excel formulas, or conversational English.
Until AI coders can generate business logic from conversational English in a deterministic manner, there will still be a need for human developers to understand and modify the underlying code.

Conclusion

While AI tools are transforming software development, they are unlikely to replace human developers in the foreseeable future. The nature of work and tools used will evolve, but the need for individuals who can model complexity and translate business problems into digital solutions will remain.

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