Tech Leaders Shift Support Towards Trump: Biden's Policies Drive the Change

Despite a history of animosity, Donald Trump is finding new champions among tech leaders as his path back to the White House takes shape. Elon Musk, the world's richest person, has become the most prominent figure to endorse the former president and contribute to his fundraising efforts.

This shift is a stark contrast to the widespread distancing from Trump among tech companies following the 2021 US Capitol riot. It’s especially striking considering the historical opposition to Republican causes within Silicon Valley.

• The change in political sentiment has been visible on social media, where Musk and other tech leaders have openly criticized President Biden's policies.
• Their financial backing for Trump's campaign could significantly impact the election, pushing their influence beyond their traditional circles.

Biden's Policies Fuel Tech Leaders' Concerns

Tech leaders are expressing concerns about the Biden administration's approach to key issues, including cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence (AI). The Biden administration's crackdown on crypto and its cautious approach to AI, including the recent executive order requiring AI safety standards, have triggered anxieties within the tech sector.

• Venture capitalists and tech leaders, including Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, are vocal critics of these regulations, arguing that they pose a significant threat to the development and growth of "Little Tech" startups.
• They believe that the time has come to resist these policies and advocate for a more pro-business stance.

Elon Musk's Shift: From Obama Supporter to Trump Backer

Elon Musk's decision to back Trump is a notable shift, given his past political leanings. He previously expressed a political moderation, even queuing for hours to shake Barack Obama’s hand.

However, he has grown increasingly critical of Biden's administration, particularly after being excluded from a White House business meeting. This snub, coupled with his frustrations with financial regulators, has contributed to his growing support for Trump.

• Musk's SpaceX rocket firm, which relies on government contracts, also plays a role in his political calculus, as a potential Trump administration could significantly impact his company's future.
• Musk's position on critical issues, such as Covid lockdowns, the war in Ukraine, and transgender rights, has also shifted further rightward in recent years.

Tech Leaders' Motives: Self-Interest and a Rightward Swing

Democrats argue that the tech world's shift is driven by self-interest, citing Biden's proposed taxes on multi-millionaires and unrealised capital gains, his pro-labor stance, and antitrust investigations against tech companies.

However, Stanford Business School professor Neil Malhotra emphasizes the complexity of the situation, noting that tech leaders are not a monolithic group, and their views span the political spectrum.

• While a 2017 survey found tech leaders largely aligned with Democrats on issues like gay marriage and abortion, their views diverged on regulation, leaning towards Republican stances.
• Malhotra believes that the rise of new social issues like policing, schooling, and transgender rights, particularly in San Francisco, has contributed to a backlash among some tech leaders.
• He suggests that while the majority of venture capitalists might still lean center-left, a noticeable movement towards the Republican party is evident.

Trump's Shifting Stance on Tech

Tech leaders are betting that a Trump administration would be more lenient towards crypto and AI. They believe his previous focus on deregulation and business-friendly policies would favor their interests.

However, Trump's past record suggests a more interventionist approach to tech. He initiated trade wars with China, ordered a TikTok ban, and launched antitrust lawsuits against tech companies.

• While Trump has moderated his stance on some tech issues like the TikTok ban and crypto, his overall approach to regulating the industry remains uncertain.
• Jennifer Huddleston, a tech policy expert, highlights the potential difficulties in distinguishing between the interests of "big" and "little" tech when it comes to governing.

Trump's Moderate Image and the Gamble of Tech Leaders

David Broockman, a political science professor, suggests that Trump is appealing to tech leaders by presenting a more moderate image on social issues compared to other Republicans. He has distanced himself from the national abortion ban pushed by some conservatives.

However, Broockman cautions that Trump's past actions, such as the adoption of extreme policies after his 2016 election, should not be overlooked. He highlights the risk that tech leaders might face with Trump's unpredictable policymaking.

• Trump's past radical policies, including mass deportations, workforce reductions, and tariffs, have alienated Wall Street and other business sectors.
• Tech leaders are essentially betting on Trump's more moderate stance, hoping to avoid a repeat of his past extreme policies.

Trump's China Stand and Tech's Shift

Garrett Johnson, a venture-backed tech executive, argues that Trump's stance on China's threat to national security has contributed to tech leaders' shift. He believes Trump's emphasis on this issue has resonated within the tech community.

• Johnson believes that while Trump wasn't always right, he was right on the significant threat posed by China to national security.
• This shared concern about China's growing influence has potentially shifted some tech leaders' views towards Trump.