Ukraine's Superior Tactics Hindered by Critical Ammunition Shortage

Ukrainian forces have displayed superior tactics compared to their Russian counterparts, often defeating much larger Russian formations. However, their success is limited by a severe shortage of ammunition, rendering their tactics irrelevant when they run out of essential supplies.

• Ukrainian troops are forced to retreat from positions they could have held with sufficient firepower.
• The garrison in Avdiivka had to withdraw after inflicting heavy casualties on Russians but running out of ammunition.
• Another garrison in Chasiv Yar faces a similar dilemma due to the lack of ammunition.

Russia's Mobilization Depleting Finite Resources

Russia has fully mobilized its political, industrial, and military resources, but this mobilization is rapidly depleting its finite resources, particularly its stockpile of old Cold War-era weapons.

• Russian troops are increasingly resorting to using unarmored vehicles like freight trucks and even golf carts due to a shortage of modern armored vehicles.
• Russian industry cannot produce enough new tanks and fighting vehicles to replace losses, which are accelerating.
• Projections suggest Russia may run out of old tanks and fighting vehicles in storage as early as mid-2025.

Republican House Blocking Critical Military Aid

Ukraine heavily relies on foreign aid, particularly from the United States, to meet its urgent financial and military needs. However, Russia-friendly Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives, led by Speaker Mike Johnson, are withholding a decisive portion of this aid.

• Johnson has refused to bring to a vote a $60 billion aid package proposed by President Biden.
• This aid would provide essential ammunition and air defense systems to Ukraine.
• Without this aid, Ukraine's ability to defend its territory and airspace will rapidly fade.

Russian Casualties and Losses Mounting

Despite their inferior tactics and depleting resources, the Russians continue to gain ground due to their sheer numbers and willingness to sustain heavy casualties.

• Russia has lost over 15,300 tanks, fighting vehicles, and other weapons in Ukraine, along with hundreds of thousands of troops.
• Between 800 and 1,000 Russian soldiers are dying every day in the wider war.
• Estimates suggest killing 100,000 Russians this year could permanently damage Russia's mobilization efforts.

Ukrainian Cities Vulnerable to Russian Air Raids

Ukraine's best air defense batteries have fallen silent due to a lack of American-made missiles, leaving major cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa increasingly defenseless against Russian missile and bomb attacks.

• 600 Ukrainian civilians, including children, died in air raids in March alone.
• A recent missile raid on Kyiv destroyed the city's largest power plant, disrupting weapons workshops.
• U.S. ambassador Bridget Brink has pleaded for more air defense assistance to protect Ukrainian cities.

Ukraine's Fate in the Hands of U.S. House Speaker

Despite Ukraine's superior tactics and determination, the country's ability to defend itself against the Russian invasion ultimately rests in the hands of U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson and his willingness to approve military aid.

• With continued U.S. support, a rearmed Ukrainian military could protect its cities and achieve firepower superiority over the increasingly depleted Russian forces.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has urged partners to act decisively to defeat "Russian terror" before it spreads further.
• The choice to provide the necessary ammunition and air defense systems lies with Speaker Johnson and the slim Republican majority in the House.